Pakistan's Stolen Democracy

How Western Complicity Enabled Military's Evolution from Subtle Rigging to Brazen Electoral Theft

In September 2025, over a year after Pakistan's February 8, 2024 general elections, a damning truth emerged. Drop Site News published a leaked Commonwealth Observer Group report that international institutions had buried for over a year. The document exposed systematic electoral fraud that overturned the clear will of 128 million Pakistani voters, and revealed how Western democracy guardians helped conceal the crime.

The Commonwealth Secretariat, led by then-Secretary-General Patricia Scotland, took an unprecedented step: they suppressed their own election observer report at the request of Pakistan's military regime. For the first time in the organization's 70-year history, a Commonwealth election report was buried rather than published. The European Union followed suit, refusing to release their observer mission findings despite freedom of information requests.

This institutional complicity represents more than bureaucratic failure—it signals Western accommodation of authoritarianism for geopolitical convenience. The leaked Commonwealth report confirms what Pakistani voters recognized immediately: their 2024 election was stolen under international supervision, and their supervisors became accomplices in the theft.

2018 vs 2024: From Surgical Precision to Sledgehammer Subtlety

Pakistan's military has perfected electoral manipulation over decades, but the contrast between 2018 and 2024 reveals a dramatic evolution in tactics—from calculated engineering to desperate overreach.

2018: The Art of Controlled Victory

The 2018 elections demonstrated the military establishment's preference for surgical precision over brute force. The goal was clear: bring Imran Khan to power while maintaining plausible deniability and avoiding international condemnation.

The manipulation was sophisticated and targeted. As NPR reported during the 2018 campaign, "The army essentially wants a weak coalition government... It's so much easier to exploit and influence a weak and divided government, as opposed to a strong government led by one party." The military didn't want to give Khan an overwhelming mandate that might make him difficult to control.

The engineering tactics included:

• Strategic arrests and harassment of opposition candidates, but not wholesale detention

• Media pressure favoring Khan while allowing some critical coverage

• Targeting specific constituencies where "police opened some 17,000 criminal cases against PML-N candidates, and detained hundreds of party supporters"

• Allowing the PTI to use its party symbol (cricket bat) while creating obstacles for opponents

The result was a carefully calibrated victory. Khan won, but without the crushing mandate that early polls suggested he might achieve. Opposition allegations focused on the Result Transmission System suddenly failing, allegedly to rig it in favor of the PTI, but the manipulation was sophisticated enough that Khan could claim the elections were the most "fairest" in the country's history.

Crucially, the international response was muted but not silent. The Trump State Department noted "unequal campaign opportunities" and shared concerns about "flaws in the pre-voting electoral process," but these were diplomatic protests rather than condemnations. The military achieved its objective while maintaining international legitimacy.

2024: The Sledgehammer Approach

By February 2024, subtlety had been abandoned for sledgehammer tactics. The military's desperation was evident—Khan remained Pakistan's most popular politician despite imprisonment, and public sentiment had turned decisively against military interference in politics.

The pre-election suppression was totalitarian in scope:

• The Commonwealth Observer Group "received multiple reports of PTI members and supporters being arrested, detained and undergoing unexplained periods of disappearance"

• PTI was banned as a party, forcing candidates to run as independents

• The party was stripped of its cricket bat symbol, crucial for illiterate voters

• Over 10,000 PTI arrests occurred between December 2023 and May 2024

• Campaign offices and private homes were systematically raided

The election day fraud was brazen and visible. Television broadcasts showed PTI-backed candidates leading in approximately 127 National Assembly seats according to official counts, but results were systematically reversed after communication blackouts. The Commonwealth report documented this precisely: "On election day, the failure of the digital results transmission due to the shutdown of cellular services significantly reduced the transparency of the process." The mechanics of vote manipulation centered on Forms 45 and 47—the original polling station results and consolidated constituency results. PTI established an online portal to gather evidence of electoral irregularities, highlighting disparities between recorded votes in Form 45 and the provisional official election results in Form 47. In some constituencies, discrepancies reached 74,000 votes, as alleged in Nawaz Sharif's victory over PTI's Yasmin Rashid in NA-130 Lahore.

The difference was stunning: where 2018 had seen careful vote management to ensure Khan's controlled victory, 2024 witnessed wholesale vote reversal to prevent a PTI landslide that even massive pre-election suppression couldn't stop.

The Geopolitical Calculus: Ukraine, America, and Democratic Sacrifice

The international silence surrounding Pakistan's 2024 electoral fraud wasn't accidental—it reflected a calculated geopolitical decision that prioritized Ukraine war compliance over Pakistani democracy.

The Khan Problem

Imran Khan's downfall began with his foreign policy independence. As prime minister, Khan pursued "absolutely not" neutrality on Ukraine, refusing Western pressure to supply weapons or condemn Russia. He publicly rebuked UK and EU diplomats who pressed him on the war, embarrassing Western powers at a critical moment.

The pressure was documented and decisive. Leaked documents revealed that US diplomats privately threatened that bilateral ties would be "seriously damaged" if Khan remained in power. His April 2022 removal through a parliamentary no-confidence vote came amid this documented American pressure.

The Compliant Replacement

Khan's successor, Shehbaz Sharif, provided immediate Ukraine compliance. The military-backed coalition government reversed Khan's neutral stance, aligning with Western positions on the war. This compliance became more valuable to Western powers than Pakistani democratic legitimacy.

Dr. Hussain Nadim of George Washington University captured this calculation precisely: "Both the EU and the UK have been comfortable with Pakistan Army's onslaught against democracy and Imran Khan's illegal incarceration as long as the military regime was compliant on the Ukraine war front."

Institutional Capture

The reward for compliance was institutional protection. When Pakistan's government requested suppression of the Commonwealth report, Patricia Scotland acquiesced immediately. When EU citizens sought their election observer report through freedom of information laws, officials refused, arguing disclosure would "undermine international relations."

This reflected "the very nature of the U.S.-Pakistan relationship" where "Pakistan's army has long been America's partner of choice in the country, through periods of both military and civilian rule." Democracy was expendable; military partnership was essential.

The Form 45/47 Scandal: When Vote Counting Becomes Vote Cooking

The technical mechanics of the 2024 fraud centered on manipulation of electoral forms - a bureaucratic crime that left documentary evidence of systematic vote theft and revealed the military's stunning incompetence.

Form 45 represents the authentic polling station results, signed by presiding officers in the presence of candidate representatives. Form 47 provides the consolidated constituency results prepared by returning officers. In a legitimate election, Form 47 should simply aggregate Form 45 data. But as the People's Commissar thread brilliantly exposes, the 2024 election saw systematic manipulation between these forms. The Commonwealth report confirms that "the shutdown of internet services to prevent ROs from reporting form 45s electronically" was deliberate, forcing manual transmission that enabled wholesale vote manipulation.

The pattern was systematic and stupid: PTI candidates led massively on Form 45s but lost on Form 47s. The discrepancies weren't subtle - they ranged "from a few thousand to over seventy thousand votes in many instances." This wasn't sophisticated vote management; it was "comically inept fauji math" that required shutting down entire communication networks to execute. PTI leader Hammad Azhar's analysis, based on Form 45 data, showed PML-N securing only 17 National Assembly seats and approximately 30-40 seats in the Punjab Assembly - far fewer than officially awarded. The regime had to literally turn off the internet to steal this many votes, revealing both their desperation and their incompetence.

Even regime officials couldn't maintain the fiction. In April 2024, Lieutenant General Ayman Bilal Safdar, Commander of Mangla Corps, was forced to resign after he accused the Army of election rigging during a Corps Commander Conference. In May, former Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar ul Haq Kakar issued a veiled warning to PML-N leaders, suggesting that if he disclosed information about Form-47 manipulation, the party would find themselves in difficulty.

International Complicity and Democratic Betrayal

The suppression of election observer reports represents institutional failure on multiple levels, revealing how democracy's supposed guardians became its gravediggers.

The Commonwealth Capitulation

The Commonwealth Observer Group, led by former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, documented extensive fraud but buried their findings when Pakistan requested suppression. The report accused the government of actions that violated "fundamental political rights, including freedom of association, assembly and expression" and noted discrepancies that "may have resulted in some candidates being unlawfully returned."

Patricia Scotland's decision to suppress the report violated the Commonwealth's foundational principles. The organization had never failed to publish an election observer report in its 70-year history. The precedent was devastating: authoritarian regimes could now expect international cover for electoral fraud if they offered sufficient geopolitical cooperation.

European Union Enablement

The EU's parallel suppression was equally damaging. Despite sending an Election Expert Mission, the European External Action Service refused all freedom of information requests for their report. Officials argued that disclosure would "undermine the public interest as regards international relations" and "be negatively perceived by Pakistan."

This reasoning inverted democratic priorities: protecting authoritarian feelings became more important than exposing authoritarian crimes. The EU effectively declared that electoral fraud was acceptable if it served broader diplomatic objectives.

American Accommodation

The Biden administration's response was tellingly weak. Despite claiming "democracy is a key focus," the administration "largely dropped the ball when it comes to Pakistan's election." The State Department acknowledged "allegations of fraud" but called only for investigation, not action.

This tepid response reflected deeper structural issues: "Pakistan's army has long been America's partner of choice" and "America's belief in the military as the guarantor of stability in Pakistan has hardly borne out." Pakistani democracy was sacrificed to maintain military relationships and nuclear security cooperation.

The Human Cost of Institutional Silence

While international institutions protected Pakistan's military regime through diplomatic silence, the human cost mounted relentlessly.

Khan has spent two years in solitary confinement, with his party reporting that "103 PTI workers and office bearers have been convicted in military courts—a blatant violation of Pakistan's commitments under international human rights conventions." The regime has systematically targeted not just political leaders but ordinary supporters. Rehana Dar, an 80-year-old woman, was dragged from her home by police for supporting the opposition. Thousands continue facing arrest, torture, and forced disappearance. Pakistan's negotiation process with the opposition collapsed in January 2025 when authorities refused to establish judicial commissions to investigate the electoral fraud. The international community's response has been to accommodate rather than condemn. The Commonwealth continues embracing the Pakistani regime despite their own buried report. The EU maintains normal relations. The United States provides security cooperation. The victims of electoral theft receive institutional abandonment rather than international solidarity.

Lessons for Global Democracy

Pakistan's stolen election reveals fundamental weaknesses in international democracy protection mechanisms. When observer organizations suppress their own findings, when freedom of information laws can be overridden by diplomatic convenience, and when electoral fraud receives institutional cover, the entire architecture of democratic accountability collapses. The contrast between 2018 and 2024 illuminates how authoritarian regimes adapt their methods. Where subtle manipulation once sufficed, desperate overreach becomes necessary when public sentiment turns decisively against military rule. But international institutions failed to adapt their responses accordingly.

As Foreign Affairs observed: "Until the parties recognize that their interests are no longer served by embracing Pakistan's military, even momentous elections like February's vote will fail to deliver real change." The same principle applies internationally: until democracy organizations recognize that geopolitical convenience cannot justify electoral fraud, their credibility will remain compromised.

Conclusion: Democracy's Institutional Crisis

Pakistan's 2024 election goes beyond domestic political crisis—it exposes the institutional rot within international democracy protection mechanisms. The Commonwealth and EU didn't simply fail to protect Pakistani democracy; they actively participated in covering up its theft. The leaked Commonwealth report now provides irrefutable evidence of this institutional complicity. As the source who leaked the document hoped, it should cause reflection on "whether the organization's complicity in the government of Pakistan's cover-up is consistent with the organization's commitment to the democratic process." But reflection alone is insufficient. The Pakistani people voted on February 8, 2024, believing their choices would matter. International observers confirmed those choices were systematically overturned. Then those same observers helped conceal the evidence. This represents betrayal not just of Pakistani voters, but of democratic principles worldwide. The full Commonwealth report is now public through Drop Site News. The evidence of systematic electoral fraud under international supervision has never been more thoroughly documented. The question that remains is whether democracy's institutional guardians will finally choose democratic principles over diplomatic convenience.

For Pakistan, the struggle continues. As Khan wrote from prison: "This struggle is not about me alone. The erosion of democracy in Pakistan has far-reaching consequences." Those consequences now extend beyond Pakistan's borders to the credibility of every institution that claims to protect democratic rights but chooses instead to protect those who violate them.